We suggested in yesterday’s video that USDCAD is likely to move higher and break above the recent resistance. Crude oil weakness helped the currency pair to move higher quite strongly. This is yet another reminder that TIOmarkets analysis is exceptional and of high value for active traders. Share the analysis and our with your trader friends and they will be grateful to you! By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

USDCAD was trading just above 1.3240 yesterday (black arrow), when we said in the DMC video that the market is likely to move beyond the resistance and then the next target. This is what happened and now we’ll have to go to smaller timeframes to see where the trading opportunities are. This market really has been very good to us. It has moved exactly (!) as we have predicted. More on this market in today’s video. 

Stock markets came down in yesterday’s trading following the news of major banks’ at leas passively helping criminals in money laundering. Reportedly, over two thousand billion dollars (!) of suspect funds were transferred through the banks over the last two decades. This clearly shows that banks aren’t interested in fighting crime but rather foster relationship with all the clients, including scammers, mobsters and perhaps even terrorists. This is alarming as it means that criminals and terrorists don’t have to worry about the banks helping the authorities. What this translates to is less security and protection for you and your family. There should be wide political pressure to change the legislation that currently makes it too easy for banks to ignore criminal activity across different jurisdictions. 

Australian central bank RBA is considering several monetary policy options, including negative rates. On top of the unlimited government bond buying program the bank is now considering currency intervention and either lower or even negative rates. However, the bank officials have commented that they see negative rates as an unlikely option. 

New coronavirus infections keep on increasing in Europe and the UK is considering new restrictions while the PM and his conservative party is reluctant to impose a total lockdown again. They fear the economic cost and the long-term consequences, namely increased poverty and increased mental illnesses that follow it. At the same time the UK is at odds with the EU regards to the Brexit agreement negotiated last year. This factors increase uncertainty in the UK economy and should contribute to the weakening of GBPUSD seen lately. To take advantage of our analysis and ultra-low trading fees, register for an account and deposit here.

There isn’t much going on in terms of macroeconomic news today. We only have two red-alert events. First, the Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks and later on, one hour after the New York open, the Fed Chair Powell testifies. These events could cause currency fluctuations should there be new unexpected information about central banks’ policies. 
We will take a closer look at the charts in today’s Daily Market Commentary video available on our YouTube channel.

EURUSD created another lower high and couldn’t push beyond the descending trendline (red). This means the pair wasn’t able to move back into the rising channel and is now yet again testing the key support area and is trading near the 50 days SMA. In today’s Daily Market Commentary video available on our YouTube channel we will cover the main currency pairs as we seek for trading opportunities. 

Cable moved lower as expected. We said earlier that it’s unlikely the pair will go beyond the 1.30 resistance and now the market has created a lower high. Now the question is whether the bears are strong enough to drive the price lower or do we get a bounce as we are trading near 1.2759 support. Let’s take a closer look at this on our DMC video.

We pointed out yesterday, that USDJPY was trading at a key level which and that these levels could lead to trend reversal.

Now USDJPY is indeed showing signs of turning around. We have early signs of potential turn-around in this market and if we now see further buying in this market it’s likely to move to 105 or so. We look for long trading opportunities above 104. 

For more analysis and commentary, visit our website at www.tiomarkets.com/analysis and our YouTube channel where you can find daily market commentary videos to support your learning and growth as a trader. 

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, -205K
  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 15 (15 expected)
  • US Unemployment Claims, 860K (825K expected)
  • UK Retail Sales, 0.8% (0.8% expected)
  • Canadian Core Retails Sales, -0.4% (0.5% expected)
  • US CB Leading Index, 1.2% (1.3% expected)
  • Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, 78.9% (75 expected)

Macroeconomic data releases today and tomorrow

  • UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, 40.6B expected
  • BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • Fed Chair Powell Testifies
  • French Flash Services PMI, 52.2 expected
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI, 50.6 expected
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI, 52.0 expected
  • German Flash Services PMI, 53.0 expected
  • EU Flash Manufacturing PMI, 51.5 expected
  • EU Flash Services PMI, 51.0 expected
  • UK Flash Manufacturing PMI, 54.3 expected
  • UK Flash Services PMI, 57.0 expected
  • UK Flash Manufacturing PMI, 52.5 expected
  • US Flash Services PMI, 54.5 expected
  • US Crude Oil Inventories, -2.5M expected

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Trade Safe!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst

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Janne Muta

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