Reports of gunshots, members of the Senate being evacuated to a safe room, explosives confiscated by the FBI and four casualties. One woman shot by the police and the other three dead due to medical emergencies. The results of President Trump and his team urging people to march to the Capitol are highly disturbing. In a reaction to the chaos the former president Barack Obama called this “a  moment of great dishonour and shame”. He also said that it was not a surprise. A Democrat member of the Senate interviewed by the BBC this morning talked about Trump as a man who has lost his ability to tweet but not his ability to start a nuclear war and a consortium business leaders have suggested the 25th amendment should be evoked to remove Trump from the office. The news videos from Capitol Hill look more like dystopian movies than real life news reports. And what’s more there have been reports of armed Trump supporters storming other cities and behaving in a threatening manner. The question is, what is likely to happen next? It is unlikely that President Trump will drop his unsubstantiated narrative of stolen elections and the risk is that his supporters will create a resistance movement that engages in similar attacks in the future. Even though President Trump asked people to go home and called for peace it is clear from his rhetoric that he sees these people (who stormed the Capitol) as an integral part of his voter base and intends to rely on them in his 2024 presidential election campaign. This means the tensions in the US are likely to remain high. Today’s significant risk events include the US unemployment claims, Canadian Ivey PMI and the US ISM Services PMI. The only events worthy of mention are the US manufacturing PMI and the OPEC JMMC meeting. See our economic calendar for times and details. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

The US parliament is now practically in the hands of the Democrats and the likelihood of greater economic aid packages is higher. The Democratic majority is narrow which means they still might have to negotiate with the Conservatives which could slow the process but this gives them a two year time window to promote their goals and policies. This supported EURUSD and the commodity currencies AUD and NZD. We said yesterday that the Georgia election result would be likely to have a significant impact on Bitcoin. Our view was that a win by the Democratic nominees would weaken the dollar and strengthen the bitcoin while an election result favouring the Republican nominees would be likely to cause more downside volatility. As soon as news reports came in that the Democrats were in the lead Bitcoin started to rally and break resistance levels. Since breaking the 32874 resistance BTCUSD has rallied over 13% and is trading, once again, in new all time highs. Profit taking started exactly at the level that corresponded to a price projection based on the width of the bearish channel Bitcoin traded in yesterday and day before. The nearest key support level is the previous swing high (before the latest rally) at 34800. Open a VIP Black account with us. There are no per trade execution or monthly fees on our VIP Black accounts.

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • UK Final Manufacturing PMI 57.5, 57.3 expected
  • Canadian Manufacturing PMI 57.9, 55.8 previous
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.6 expected
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -123K, 60K expected
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes

Important macroeconomic data releases this week

  • US Unemployment Claims 798K expected
  • Canadian Ivey PMI 53.1 expected
  • US ISM Services PMI 54.5 expected

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst

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