US House Leader Nancy Pelosi is starting a process to get President Trump impeached. Even though the Democrats don’t have a hope a conviction before April their aim is to prevent Mr Trump to rerun for the US presidency again in 2024. We said on Friday’s Price Action Analysis video that a failure to penetrate 1.2280 makes it likely the EURUSD will break the next supports. This is what happened and the pair has been trading below 1.2170 this morning European time. In today’s trading, AUD and NZD have been weakest against the USD while JPY and CHF have been showing relative strength against the other major currencies by losing less than the others. BTCUSD has also followed the suit and retraced lower. This is now the 3rd day bitcoin is down and is trading just around 34,000 at the time of writing.  The all-time high was printed on Friday 8th at 42,000. The previous significant retracement in November was 17%. It remains to be seen how sizeable this retracement will be. It has been our view that USD strength will translate to weakness in BTCUSD. As always it pays to follow correlations between USD priced assets and in this BTC is no exception. Today’s calendar is again light with only the BOC Business Outlook Survey scheduled for today. This week’s main risk event is the release of US retail sales figures on Friday. See our economic calendar for times and details. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

In Friday’s analysis (see here), we focused on 1.2283 resistance being a highly important resistance level in EURUSD. Our view was that price creating a lower high at 1.2283 it was highly likely that 1.2208 support would be violated. The market is now trading outside the bullish price channel it was in and is likely to be in a sell the rallies mode this week. Therefore, EURUSD should provide us with intraday trades (from the key support and resistance levels) to both directions, long and short. EURUSD dropped to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2170 before rallying a bit. The 1.2208 level is now a resistance level with other key support and resistance levels at 1.2105, 1.2129, 1.2152 and 1.2349. The 1.2208 resistance is interesting at it coincides with the 50% retracement level.  Open a VIP Black account with us. There are no per trade execution or monthly fees on our VIP Black accounts.

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • Canadian Ivey PMI 46.7, 53.1 expected
  • US ISM Services PMI 57.2, 54.5 expected
  • Canadian Employment Change -32.5K expected
  • Canadian Unemployment Rate 8.7% expected
  • US Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% expected
  • US Non-Farm Employment Change 60K expected
  • US Unemployment Rate 6.8% expected
  • Canadian Employment Change -62.5, -32.5K expected
  • Canadian Unemployment Rate 8.6%, 8.7% expected
  • US Average Hourly Earnings 0.8%, 0.2% expected
  • US Non-Farm Employment Change -140K, 60K expected
  • US Unemployment Rate 6.7%, 6.8% expected

Important macroeconomic data releases this week

  • OC Business Outlook Survey

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
TIOmarkets.com

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