The price of crude oil has been rallying on vaccine news and recovery speculations since the beginning of the month and has now reached overbought levels. The latest extension in the rally has triggered profit-taking and the WTI Crude futures saw some selling pressure coming in. The price of oil dropped from $46,26 to $45 where the futures are trading at the time of writing this. OPEC+ ministers are due to meet from Monday next week which together with the weekend risk explains why traders are decreasing their market exposure today. Apart from Japanese inflation missing the expectations (-0.7% vs. -0.6% expected) there are no high or medium volatility risk events in the calendar today. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

As the OPEC+ meeting is approaching and the price of oil is in the news we will take a look at key technical factors and levels in the WTI Crude (USOIL) market. The price is trading at 23.6% retracement level after it failed to stay above the  10-period moving average. The next interesting price level can be found at $43.80 where several technical factors coincide. This technical confluence zone consists of a rising trend line, horizontal support based on the 27th August high, 50-period SMA and 38.2% retracement level. Should the price decline further it would move below the rising trendline and highly likely to the next key level at $43. This is where 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the high from November 11th coincide. After this, the next support level can be found at $40.10. Yesterday’s high at $46.20 is the key resistance level at the time of writing this. For more analysis on this and many other markets, you may want to subscribe to TIOmarkets YouTube channel.

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • French Flash Services PMI, 38, 39.2 expected
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1, 50.2 expected
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.9, 56.0 expected
  • German Flash Services PMI 46.2, 46.1 expected
  • UK Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.2, 50.5 expected
  • UK Flash Services PMI 45.8, 43.2 expected
  • US Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.7, 52.5 expected
  • US CB Consumer Confidence 97.7 expected
  • US Prelim GDP 33.1%, 33.1% expected
  • US Unemployment Claims 778K, 732K expected
  • US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 76.9K, 76.9 expected
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • Australian Private Capital Expenditure -3.0%, -1.5% expected
  • Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey -6.7, -5 expected

Macroeconomic data releases today

  • Tokyo CPI -0.7%, -0.6% expected

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst

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