EURUSD bounced again higher on Friday from the technical support levels we have been pointing in our previous analyses. Non-Farm payroll change was confirmed near the consensus forecast. The actual number was 1371K, while the expectation was a notch higher, 1375K. There was a lot of market reaction in the dollar pairs but US stock indices were soft after the announcement. EURUSD corrected a little lower but was met with buying and has remained bullish in the daily timeframe. Gold moved sideways and closed slightly above its opening price. WTI crude sold off more heavily than stocks, gold or FX dollar majors. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

Average US hourly earnings were a positive surprise at 0.4%, which meant an increase of 0.3% since the previous release. The expectation was 0.0%. The US unemployment rate fell much more than expected and came in at 8.4%. Earnings data and unemployment rate were USD positive and resulted in some intraday dollar buying but this was enough to break key support levels in EURUSD. The pair stayed within the rising channel (red lines) as buyer again came in roughly at the trend line support I had drawn earlier last week. Today is a bank holiday in the US and Canada and the European calendar is very light. This is likely to result in sluggish trading conditions. 

The biggest risk event for EURUSD will be the European Central Bank rate decision and press conference on Thursday. We will stay bearish on the USD and therefore bullish on EURUSD as long as the technicals point to higher prices. At the time of writing this, stochastics oscillator is near to the oversold threshold of 20 and price action on Thursday and Friday indicate the recent downside momentum reversing. Based on current indications, we think it probable that EURUSD will keep on attracting buyers above 1.1750. To take advantage of our ultra-low trading fees, register for an account and deposit here.

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • US Unemployment Claims 881K (955K expected)
  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 (57.0 expected)
  • Canadian Employment Change 245.8K (262.5K expected)
  • Canadian Unemployment Rate 10.2% (10.1% expected)
  • US Average Hourly Earnings 0.4% (0.0% expected)
  • US Non-Farm Employment Change 1371K (1385K expected)
  • US Unemployment Rate 8.4% (9.8% expected)

Macroeconomic data releases today & tomorrow

  • Swiss Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Australian NAB Business Confidence

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst

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Janne Muta

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