Many markets are closed today for Easter, with a few exceptions. Japan and the US are both trading lower with futures down more than 1%. Metals and energy commodities are trading as well. As for the markets, here is your daily roundup:

  • The number of cases in China ticks up again, passing the 100 mark. Also, Singapore reported 233 new cases, 70% of them unrelated to know clusters.
  • Don’t really like officials sensationalist declarations, but Kashkari – a young rising star of the US economical world and president of the Fed of Minneapolis – is warning the county should stay ready for an 18-month shutdown.
  • Over the weekend, Turkish Interior Minister Soylu resigned over Covid-lockdown panic, but Erdogan rejected his decision. TRY is weak today, losing around 1% both ag Eur and USD. The currency has been depreciating constantly since mid-2019.
  • OPEC+ finalised the agreement of cutting production, with 9.7 million barrels a day taken off the supply side: only Mexico refused to reduce its part for the 400k bpd requested (will cut only 100k and other 300k will be curbed by the US in an ‘effort to help’): this amount for around the 10% of the daily production. 
  • Cuts will begin on 1st May, which will last two months and then gradually decrease to 5.7 mios bpd during 2021-2022. OPEC+ will gather again on 10th June. This is considered like a solution that will only postpone the stock-building constraints problem but has already been sold as a victory by the Trump administration for the spread between inland CL and Brent has not stopped widening. On the other hand, with several banks forecasting the oil price to go below 20$, the futures curve has steepened in the front-end contracts.

Crude – Brent Spread

CL Futures Curves in different dates

FOREX

USD is further weakening, DXY down 0.23% to 99.27, among safe-haven currencies, JPY is stronger than CHF, GBPUSD up 0.63% to 1.2527 and breaking recent highs, AUD is still outperforming and extending its rally since late march to 15.30% ag the USD. Finally, GOLD is fractionally up at 1689$, close to the year’s highs at 1703$.


By: Marco Turatti
Technical Analyst

TIO Staff
Author

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