UK retail sales data came in much higher than expected this morning UK time. The analyst expectation was to see a contraction of 0.3% but the actual number was confirmed at 1.2%. The initial reaction to this highly positive report was however a decline in GBPUSD. The market has since attracted buyers and rallied to levels preceding the announcement. Cable is trading relatively close to 1.3313 resistance and therefore traders are being careful with their longs. This has led to ranging price action today. Other main events today include the Canadian retail sales numbers and the ECB President Lagarde’s speech. See our economic calendar for more details. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

GBPUSD is trading not only close to the recently created resistance level at 1.3313 but also fairly close to medium term channel high. This and the fact that we have USD index retracing back to support after the channel breakout yesterday makes GBPUSD move slowly. This could result in the pair selling off. Key price levels to focus on are the nearest supports at 1.3196 and 1.3249 and the resistance levels at 1.3292 and 1.3313. This trading week is drawing to a close soon which means that we should prepare to close our positions to avoid weekend risk.

USDCAD retail sales numbers are due at 1.30 pm (GMT) is trading near 52-week lows. The pair bounced higher last week closing to a resistance (1.3128). Now it has retraced to levels near 1.3030 support that was put in place two days ago. The key support and resistance levels for intraday volatility trading around today’s risk event are 1.29840, 1.30330 (supports) and 1.3088 and 1.3123 (resistances). There is a slight downward tendency in the 2h resolution (based on regression channel analysis) but at the same time, this market is trading near long-term lows which can limit the downside. Analyst consensus expects the core retail sales to come in at 0.0% (0.5% previously) and the headline number at 0.2% (0.4% previously). For more analysis on this and many other markets, you may want to subscribe to TIOmarkets YouTube channel

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • New Zealand Official Cash Rate 0.25%, 0.25 expected
  • US CPI 0.0%, 0.1% expected
  • US Core CPI 0.0%, 0.2% expected
  • US Unemployment Claims 709K, 730K expected
  • US Core PPI 0.1%, 0.2% expected
  • US PPI 0.3%, 0.2% expected
  • Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 77.0, 82.1 expected
  • US Core Retail Sales 0.2%, 0.6% expected
  • US Retail Sales 0.3%, 0.5% expected
  • Canadian CPI 0.4%, 0.2 expected
  • Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -79.5K
  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 26.3, 22.0 expected
  • US Unemployment Claims 742K, 707K expected

Macroeconomic data releases today

  • UK Retail Sales, 1.2%, -0.3% expected
  • ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • Canadian Core Retail Sales 0.0% expected
  • Canadian Retail Sales 0.2% expected

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst

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