The US equity index futures almost touched the targets for our long trades in yesterday’s trading. Empire State Manufacturing Index was confirmed at 17.0 while analysts expected to see only a minor improvement from 3.7 to 6.2. Together with positive industrial data from China earlier helped stocks to continue higher in yesterday’s trading. Now traders are focusing on what the Fed will say in it’s press conference tonight at 6 pm GMT. They want to see if the Fed will shed more light on the new interest rate policy that will not target 2% inflation but rather seeks to average inflation over time. The historic decision means the doors are wide open for considerably more QE than would have been possible during the earlier policy. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

On Monday we set short-term targets in US equity indices. The above charts are from Monday. We saw market trading near supports and VIX index falling further, so we focused on long trades and said that our short-term targets for long trades in S&P and DJIA were: 3420 and 28140 respectively. For Nasdaq we set our target at 11500. These prices are for e-mini futures and CFD prices may be slightly higher or lower.

At the time of writing this all index futures have traded very close to our targets. In fact, they’ve been so close that the targets have been practically hit. S&P missed the target by only 0.32% or 11 index points and DJIA by 0.04% or 12 points. Nasdaq has been only 3.5 index points or 0.03% away from our targets. This shows that big institutions have focused on these same target levels and have started to sell right below our targets! Also, the fact that markets moved higher from Monday’s levels shows that we had the same focus as the institutional investors. Otherwise the move higher would not have been possible. It therefore makes sense to follow our analysis and invite your trader friends to read it. Do it now and if you haven’t registered already, go to tiomarkets.com/analysis to sign up to receive our analysis via email. 

US stock indices are now trading near resistance levels and have attracted some profit taking. DJIA created a bearish shooting star candle in the daily chart yesterday. We therefore start to look for sell signals below 3425 in S&P, below 2900 in DJIA and below 11570 in Nasdaq. With the Fed press conference today at 6 pm GMT we like to keep our targets nearby and focus on longer moves later on once we know what the Fed Chair Powell says and how the markets react to his message. Our S&P and DJIA targets are: 3336 and 27576 respectively. To take advantage of our analysis and ultra-low trading fees, register for an account and deposit here.

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • US Unemployment Claims, 884K (838K expected)
  • US Crude Oil Inventories, 2.0M (-3.1 expected)
  • US CPI, 0.4% (0.3% expected)
  • US Core CPI, 0.4% (0.2% expected)
  • RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
  • UK Claimant Count Change 73.7K (99.5K expected)

Macroeconomic data releases today 

  • UK CPI, 0.1% expected
  • US Core Retail Sales, 1.0% expected
  • US Retail Sales, 1.1% expected
  • US Crude Oil Inventories, 2.1M expected
  • FOMC Economic Projections
  • FOMC Statement
  • US Federal Funds Rate, <0.25 expected
  • FOMC Press Conference

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Trade Safe!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
TIOmarkets.com

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Janne Muta
Author

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