The price of gold moved to our first target on Friday. Economic stimulus hopes triggered gold buying as the US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Friday that the Treasury had many tools left to support the economy. This triggered a rally in gold that moved the market to our T1 and quite soon the profit-taking came in emphasizing how once again our target one zone was correctly placed. Canadian retail sales numbers came in at much higher levels than expected by the analyst consensus. Core retails sales was confirmed at 1.0% (0.0% expected) and the headline number was confirmed at 1.1% (0.2% expected). No significant price moves were recorded in USDCAD as a result of the numbers though. The French, German and UK PMI numbers could cause volatility this morning European time (see our economic calendar for more details) while the US PMIs might have the same effect on USD pairs and equity index futures this afternoon. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

Gold moved on Friday exactly as we expected it would. The price created higher lows in 2h chart and rallied to our target one zone. Since correcting lower the price has created a new support level at 1868.60. In order for the price of gold to move to our T2 bulls need to overcome Friday’s high at 1879.70. If they succeed and we see a decisive close above 1879.70, the probability of the price moving to our T2 increases considerably. For more analysis on this and many other markets, you may want to subscribe to TIOmarkets YouTube channel.

EURUSD is trading relatively close to the highs put in place last week. This has slowed the bulls down today. Another element slowing trading down are the PMI releases ahead today. They tend to throw the price around as the numbers provide clues to what could be ahead in the European economies, and most importantly the German economy that is the real economic engine of the Eurozone. The nearest key support and resistance levels for the pair are 1.1816, 1.1849, 1.1891 and 1.1893. For more analysis on this and many other markets, you may want to subscribe to TIOmarkets YouTube channel.

Recent macroeconomic data releases

  • US Retail Sales 0.3%, 0.5% expected
  • Canadian CPI 0.4%, 0.2 expected
  • Canadian ADP Non-Farm Employment Change -79.5K
  • US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 26.3, 22.0 expected
  • US Unemployment Claims 742K, 707K expected
  • UK Retail Sales, 1.2%, -0.3% expected
  • Canadian Core Retail Sales 1%, 0.0% expected
  • Canadian Retail Sales 1.1%, 0.2% expected

Macroeconomic data releases today

  • French Flash Services PMI, 39.2 expected
  • French Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.2 expected
  • German Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.0 expected
  • German Flash Services PMI 46.1 expected
  • UK Flash Manufacturing PMI 50.5 expected
  • UK Flash Services PMI 43.2 expected
  • US Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.5 expected
  • UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings

You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.

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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst

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