Sudden and unexpected news has the potential to break S&R levels. This is what happened on Friday as the news about Trump’s hospitalisation created a quick flurry of JPY buying and CADJPY crashed through our support level at 79.09. This selling subsided rather quickly and the CADJPY pair found support at a rising channel low. In the light of Trump’s illness and the uncertainty possibly created by it, we decided to be careful and brought the targets lower. By reading further you agree with our disclaimer at the bottom of this page and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.
In Friday’s Price Action Analysis video we provided new T1 and T2 ranges. Now CADJPY has moved to our T1 range. If you wonder how you could become a better trader, I suggest you will consider joining our live workshops. I will be there answering your questions and helping you to grow as a trader. You can register your seat here.
The willingness to CADJPY on Friday suggests that there’s more upside to come. We don’t, however, know whether the market will retrace first before it’s ready to attempt another rally. Crude oil (WTI) reversed from the support we identified in Friday’s video and has supported CADJPY.
The NFP number for September, 661K, was much lower than predicted. The analyst consensus had anticipated an increase of 900K jobs but this was missed by a wide margin. This failed to move EURUSD however and as a result of this, the 2h chart now has a higher low which suggests that, unless EU retail sales data disappoints, an intraday rally to the resistance is likely. To take advantage of our analysis and ultra-low trading fees, register for an account and deposit here.
Based on several technical factors coming together at 1.1753 – 1.1786 range the area is a key resistance zone. If EURUSD pushes above this range, it moves outside the descending regression channel. Look out for EU Retail Sales, 0.6% expected and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, 56.3 expected, which is due later on today. For more analysis on this and other markets, go to tiomarkets.com/analysis and subscribe to TIOmarkets YouTube channel.
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Recent macroeconomic data releases
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 749K, 650K expected
- Canadian GDP, 3.0%, 2.9% expected
- US Chicago PMI, 62.4, 52 expected
- US Pending Home Sales, 8.8%, 3.1% expected
- US Core PCE Price Index, 0.3%, 0.3% expected
- US Personal Spending, 1.0%, 0.7% expected
- US Unemployment Claims, 837K, 850K expected
- Canada Manufacturing PMI, 56
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI, 55.4, 56 expected
- US Average Hourly Earnings, 0.1%, 0.5% expected
- US Non-Farm Employment Change, 661K, 900K expected
- US Unemployment rate, 7.9%, 8.2% expected
Macroeconomic data releases today
- Australia NAB Business Confidence, -4, -8 previous
- EU Retail Sales, 0.6% expected
- Eurogroup meetings
- US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, 56.3 expected
You may access the times and dates in the economic calendar here.
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Chief Market Analyst
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