Good morning

The situation is “heating up” among EU institutions and Germany after last week’s court ruling: on Sunday, the EU Commission threatened to sue the EU biggest economy as -under EU treaties- the European Court of Justice ranks higher than any national one. Last week, Germany’s constitutional court decided it wouldn’t follow a 2018 judgement by the EU Court that cleared the central bank’s debt purchases since 2015. Almost at the same time, ECB’s Lagarde said that the Central Bank is “undeterred by the legal tussle and will do what’s needed to carry on the mandate”, many analysts understanding that it will ramp up the 750 billion PEPP and could even decide to increase and extend it into 2021.

This is the last complete trading week for the JUN CL OIL contract, that could mean some portfolio adjusting to be expected, especially the last days of this week. However, after last month big mess with the price plunging almost 40$ below 0, players have been more forward oriented this time and a big part of the open interests have already been moved to a longer expiration date. Settlement is for Tue 19th May.

For cryptocurrencies lovers, BITCOIN is halving today and this will have an effect on the cryptocurrency’s hash rate meaning that after the event, block-reward sizes become smaller, which lead to a drastic increase in mining efficiency related requirements. Right now, BTC is down 14% over the weekend and at some point it has been trading as down as -19%.

Finally, not much movement in FX arena: I would underline only the weakness in JPY and eventually the MXN breaking the triangle against the USD USDMXN 4H


Marco Turatti
Technical Analyst

TIO Staff

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