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Today is a quiet day in terms of macroeconomic data but this hasn’t stopped the markets from moving. At the time of writing this, the USD running higher and the commodity currencies are taking some beating. Solid PPI release (0.7%, 0.6% expected) from the US supported the dollar as the data showed producer prices increasing in August. This lifted yields (and the USD) as it indicated that a higher inflation rate could persist for a while. The source for the inflation is the supply chains remaining tight as the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t giving up. The better than expected reading has made the traders bet that tomorrow’s CPI reading could also be USD bullish and that the Fed would therefore taper sooner. Dengan membaca lebih lanjut, Anda setuju dengan penafian kami di akhir laporan ini dan mengakui bahwa kami tidak memberikan saran investasi.

And, we have a big week ahead. The US, Canada and UK inflation numbers are due on Tuesday and Wednesday and there’s a speech by the RBA Governor Lowe on Tuesday morning too. These events could bring about some nice swings we can take advantage of. Later on, in the week, on Thursday, the NZD GDP and AUD employment data releases and the US retail sales figures are other potential sources of great trading opportunities. Make sure to add them to your calendar to get an alert before each event. You might also want to make sure your account has a big enough balance to trade the events.

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This week should be interesting with plenty of trading opportunities as we will have several key macroeconomic data releases with the highlight being the US CPI data on Tuesday. USD (+0.33) is gaining as risk aversion is making the major competitors weak. AUD (-0.45%) and EUR (-0.43%) are the weakest currencies. We have multiple factors muddying the waters this week: Fed taper, economic growth expectations (or concerns), coronavirus ( even countries with fairly good vaccine cover in Asia have seen growth in coronavirus cases). The benchmark US 10 yr. Treasuries yielded 1.35% at the end of the trading day on Friday. Previous close: 1.30%.

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Our commodities watchlist is quite divided in terms of performance when measured from the London open on Friday. Platinum and silver have been weak which is in line with economic growth concerns and the commodity currencies being weak but at the same time USOIL rallies indicating that the concerns aren’t shared by all the traders. Gold has been trading sideways for three days now and looks like to be building energy for the next volatility explosion.

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The S&P 500 (-0.77%), the DJIA (-0.78%) and the Nasdaq (-0.87%) lost quite a bit of ground on Friday. Selling was broad-based with all the S&P 500 sectors closing down. The losses were led by the utilities (-1.40%) and real estate (-1.26%) sectors. Technology (-0.99%) and healthcare (-0.92%) sectors suffered also quite badly. Interestingly the basic materials (-0.02%) and the energy (-0.04%) sectors held their ground relatively well. The biggest winners on our watchlist were UPS, GM, FCX, BKR and NVDA while AAL, ISRG, LVS, FISV and AAPL were the biggest losers.

The above chart shows the % performance of each stock. Stocks are presented here with the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY, red line) to illustrate the performance of each stock relative to the benchmark index. This allows our readers to see the potential for intraday trading opportunities in these stocks. Often the sudden increase in volatility continues on the second day. You should, therefore, keep monitoring these stocks to see if they will satisfy your criteria for a trade. All % performance charts in this report are courtesy of Tradingview.com.


There are no big risk events scheduled for today. For details on other important macroeconomic releases, see the TIOmarkets economic calendar di sini.

EURUSDDaily 09 13

Solid PPI release from the US supported the dollar as the data showed producer prices increasing in August. This lifted yields (and the USD) as it indicated that a higher inflation rate could persist for a while. The source for the inflation is the supply chains remaining tight as the COVID-19 pandemic isn’t giving up. The better than expected reading has made the traders bet that tomorrow’s CPI reading could also be USD bullish which has resulted in EURUSD weakness. As a result, EURUSD created a bearish shooting star candle on Friday and today’s price action has mostly taken place below Friday’s low. The SMA(20) and the channel high have been giving some support but with the broad-based dollar rally going on we could see further weakness in EURUSD going into the US CPI release tomorrow. The key support and resistance levels in EURUSD are 1.1663, 1.1851 and 1.1909.

GBPUSDDaily 09 13

GBPUSD has a relatively high correlation with EURUSD and therefore it’s not a surprise that the daily charts look somewhat similar now. Both cable and EURUSD now have a bearish shooting star candle from Friday. We will have the UK CPI numbers on Wednesday so this is definitely another market to keep an eye on and trade when suitable trade setups occur. The key price levels in this market are 1.3602, 1.3679, 1.3726 and 1.3790.

SP500Daily 09 13

S&P 500 traded to a support level (4465.85) we identified on Friday and has been hovering around it today. The next support level below this is a confluence zone at (4412 – 4430) where the 23.6% retracement level and the channel low coincide. The latest high at 4550.50 is the ATH and thus a resistance level. If the US CPI number comes in at elevated levels the market could stay weak with traders betting that the Fed would start tapering quicker than earlier expected. However, the market is still in an uptrend before the rising trendline at 4412 is decisively broken.

Driver Makro untuk USD 
Karena pasar yang paling banyak diikuti, diinvestasikan, dan diperdagangkan untuk aset berisiko diberi harga dalam USD, akan sangat membantu untuk memahami faktor ekonomi makro apa yang memengaruhi sisi lain persamaan, USD. Baik kita memperdagangkan EURUSD, XAUUSD, atau CFD ekuitas AS, faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi dolar, nominator dalam persamaan, memiliki peran penting dalam pembentukan semua aksi harga jangka menengah hingga jangka panjang. Tabel berikut merangkum dasar-dasar yang paling penting.

FEDKetua Fed Powell mengatakan pada hari Jumat (27 Agustus) di Jackson Hole Symposium bahwa tapering dapat dimulai pada tahun 2021 tetapi juga menyuarakan kekhawatiran tentang penyebaran varian delta.
RangsanganAnggota parlemen AS telah mengesahkan sekitar lima triliun dolar stimulus ekonomi sejak awal pandemi. Sekarang, anggota parlemen AS telah menyetujui rencana belanja infrastruktur $1,2 triliun. Pejabat The Fed mempertimbangkan untuk mengakhiri pembelian aset pada pertengahan tahun 2022.
HasilTerlepas dari kenaikan baru-baru ini (yang dimulai pada Agustus 2021), imbal hasil Treasury telah bergerak lebih rendah sejak Maret 2021. Secara keseluruhan, imbal hasil dan suku bunga sangat rendah baik secara nominal maupun riil.
PekerjaanAfter two highly positive employment reports (+938K and +943K) the August number (+235K) was a big disappointment but in fact at a level that used to be the norm in the years before the pandemic. This number could delay the Fed taper but isn’t likely to reverse their decision to taper.
InflasiIHK inti bulan ke bulan (tidak termasuk makanan dan energi) untuk bulan Juli tercatat sebesar 0,3% (ekspektasi 0,4%) yang mengindikasikan penurunan besar pada tingkat inflasi dari bulan sebelumnya (0,9%). The Fed sebelumnya telah mengambil pandangan bahwa inflasi bersifat sementara dan karena itu akan cenderung memudar. Meskipun satu titik data tidak membuat tren tampaknya The Fed telah benar dalam proyeksi inflasi mereka. Kayu berjangka misalnya sekali lagi diperdagangkan pada level Oktober 2020 dan turun lebih dari 70% dari tertinggi Mei. 

Buka akun VIP Black sekarang di www.TIOmarkets.com. Kami ingin Anda dapat memanfaatkan peluang perdagangan di pasar keuangan dengan komisi 0 dan spread yang ketat. Manfaatkan akun trading terbaik di industri: Tiomarkets VIP Black. Untuk detail lebih lanjut tentang penawaran yang benar-benar luar biasa ini, lihat di sini.

 Peristiwa Risiko Utama Berikutnya

  • AUD – RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
  • USD – US CPI m/m
  • USD – US Core CPI m/m
  • CNY – China Retail Sales y/y
  • GBP – UK CPI y/y
  • CAD – Canada CPI m/m
  • USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • USD – Produksi Industri m/m
  • USOIL – Persediaan Minyak Mentah

Untuk informasi dan detail lebih lanjut, lihat kalender ekonomi TIOmarkets di sini.

 Berita & Fakta Pasar 

  • US senator Manchin not voting for the $3.5 trillion package
  • SNB: Negative rates are still needed to keep the CHF low
  • China released some of its strategic oil reserves
  • US weekly claims 310K (344K expected)
  • ECB leaves the rates untouched but tapers a bit
  • BOC left rates and QE unchanged
  • US JOLTS job openings 10.934M (10.03M expected)
  • Fed’s Williams: appropriate to start taper in 2021
  • No chance expected from BOC today 
  • Japan GDP for Q2 +0.5% (+0.3% prelim.)
  • Federal Reserve Beige Book to be released today
  • RBA kept rates at 0.10% and cut but extended QE 
  • Australian consumer confidence 100 (101.8 prior)
  • German factory orders +3.4% (-1.0% expected)
  • Saudi Arabia cuts oil prices for Asia
  • New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price index -1.6% (-1.4% prior)
  • Mercedes: chip shortage to stay in 2022
  • China Services PMI 46.7 (52.6 expected)
  • Gazprom to switch all settlements from USD to CNY

Tautan Cepat ke Analisis Terbaru

EURUSD, AUDUSD

EURUSD, USDCAD, GOLD, BITCOIN, VIX

EURUSD, GOLD, USOIL

ROKU, AUDCAD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD

The above analysis links are provided to help new readers to verify the effectiveness of our analysis. While all our analysis publications are time-sensitive they also help traders to understand how to learn forex trading and how to analyse the markets effectively. By reading past articles traders can see how to identify support and resistance levels or how to catch big market moves.

Quick links to our ‘How to’ articles

Bagaimana cara memperdagangkan pasar saham secara efektif dan dengan risiko yang lebih rendah?

How to trade with RSI?

How to trade with moving averages?

How to trade breakouts?

Our How to articles help especially new traders to grasp the basics and teaches them how to use technical tools in trading forex.

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Perdagangan Aman!

Janne Muta
Kepala Analis Pasar
TIOmarkets.com

Buka akun VIP Black sekarang di www.TIOmarkets.com. Kami ingin Anda dapat memanfaatkan peluang perdagangan di pasar keuangan dengan komisi 0 dan spread yang ketat. Manfaatkan akun trading terbaik di industri: Tiomarkets VIP Black. Untuk detail lebih lanjut tentang penawaran yang benar-benar luar biasa ini, lihat di sini. Untuk analisis dan komentar lebih lanjut, kunjungi kami Saluran Youtube di mana Anda dapat menemukan video komentar pasar untuk mendukung pembelajaran dan pertumbuhan Anda sebagai pedagang. 

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