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EURUSD is once again under pressure after France informed the EU that Russia could stop supplying gas to Europe. I noted last week how EURUSD is vulnerable due to recession fears and because the ECB cannot easily hike the rates. The third-biggest bond market in Europe, Italy, would be in trouble if it had to pay market rates for its financing. Italy used to survive only because of the ability to devalue Lira. Ever since joining the Euro the country has been on life support as it isn’t capable of supporting its economy without help from the European Central Bank. Now, Italy with the rest of the EU is facing a huge problem: According to France, Russia might cut the gas supply very soon. Italy gets 43% of its natural gas supply from Russia and quite obviously wouldn’t be able to keep its economy going if it lost almost half of the gas supply it needs. This week’s highlights in the economic calendar are NZ Cash Rate, UK GDP, US CPI and the BOE rate decision. By reading further, you agree with our disclaimer at the end of this report and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

In today’s report, I provide you with trade ideas, analysis and key technical levels on

  • GBPUSD
  • EURUSD
  • USOIL 
  • CADCHF
  • NZDCHF

Get live updates on my analyses and trade ideas here: https://t.me/TIOmarkets_Announcements 

GBPUSD 8h chart 07 11

GBPUSD – The biggest down moves in the Cable could now be behind us. The market is still in a downtrend but the market has started to create a bullish wedge in the daily chart. If we get a decisive breakout from the formation then we’d probably have a major trend-reversal in Cable. This would be likely to bring the following key price levels into play: 1.2406, 1.2600 and 1.2665. If, however, the market keeps on drifting lower and violates the 1.1875 lower (on a closing basis) the market could move all the way down to the 1.1636 – 1.1780 range. For today’s trading, the nearest key levels are 1.1875, 1.1919, 1.2055 and 1.2164. The lower high below the 1.2055 swing point suggests the market’s likely to test the 1.1919 support and possibly move below it. 

EURUSD – I noted last week how EURUSD is vulnerable due to recession fears and because the ECB cannot easily hike the rates. The third-biggest bond market in Europe, Italy, would be in trouble if it had to pay market rates for its financing. Italy used to survive only because of the ability to devalue Lira. Ever since joining the Euro the country has been on life support as it isn’t capable of supporting its economy without help from the European Central Bank. Now, Italy with the rest of the EU is facing a huge problem: According to France, Russia might cut the gas supply very soon. Italy gets 43% of its natural gas supply from Russia and quite obviously wouldn’t be able to keep its economy going if it lost almost half of the gas supply it needs. 

EURUSD is deeply oversold and tried to rally on Friday but the move was thwarted by a new supply around 1.0190. This key level needs to be penetrated with some vigour if the bulls want to gain control of the market. Otherwise, the pair stays in a downtrend and is likely to penetrate Friday’s low. The key price levels for today’s trading are 1.0071, 1.0156 and 1.0191. 

USOIL 4h chart 07 11

USOIL bulls are tying to create a series of higher lows. The nearest key support level is at  99.27 and if it holds the bulls probably push the market above the 103.08 level. If they are successful the next level to come to play is the 105.66 resistance. If the 99.27 support gives in the market is likely to test the 96.83 level. 

CADCHF 8h chart 07 11

CADCHF – After breaking out of the bottoming formation CADCHF rallied and moved almost to my T1 level at 0.7562. The level was missed by 5 pips but the market could still trade higher and even reach my T2. Alternative scenario: The market breaks below back inside the bottoming formation and drifts down to 0.7420. 

NZDCHF 2h chart 07 11

NZDCHF has traded to both my target levels. 

Open a VIP Black account now at www.TIOmarkets.com. We want you to be able to exploit trading opportunities in financial markets with 0 commission and tight spreads. Take advantage of the best trading account in the industry: Tiomarkets VIP Black. For more details on this truly exceptional offering see here.

 The Next Main Risk Events

  • GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • NZD RBNZ Statement of Intent
  • EUR EU Economic Forecasts
  • GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
  • NZD Official Cash Rate
  • NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
  • GBP GDP m/m
  • USD CPI m/m
  • USD Core CPI m/m
  • CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
  • CAD BOC Rate Statement
  • CAD Overnight Rate
  • CAD BOC Press Conference

For more information and details see the TIOmarkets economic calendar here

Trade Safe!

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

TIOmarkets.com

Open a VIP Black account now at www.TIOmarkets.com. We want you to be able to exploit trading opportunities in financial markets with 0 commission and tight spreads. Take advantage of the best trading account in the industry: Tiomarkets VIP Black. For more details on this truly exceptional offering see here. For more analysis and commentary, visit our YouTube channel where you can find market commentary videos to support your learning and growth as a trader. 

DISCLAIMER TIOmarkets offers exclusively consultancy-free service. The views expressed in this blog are our opinions only and made available purely for educational and marketing purposes and do NOT constitute advice or investment recommendation (and should not be considered as such) and do not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. TIOmarkets and its affiliates and consultants are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by TIOmarkets analysis and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his/her investment decisions. The analyzes and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with any legal requirements for financial analysis and must, therefore, be viewed by the reader as marketing information. TIOmarkets prohibits duplication or publication without explicit approval. FX and CFDs are leveraged products. They are not suitable for every investor, as they carry a high risk of losing your capital. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. All the prices in this report are CFD prices based on price charts provided by TIOmarkets unless otherwise stated.

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