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The key price levels for NFP intraday trading

Traders aren’t convinced the Fed is going to continue fighting inflation aggressively. The most probable reason is the recent employment-related data that indicates the US jobs market is cooling down. Yes, the growth is still robust but the bond markets have been pricing in recession more than high inflation. In fact, the T-bond rally started at the same time as USOIL made a lower high (mid-June). Lower energy prices (triggered by recession fears) lead to lower inflation and this is what the treasury bond traders have discounted over the last few weeks. The bull trend in bonds has pushed the yields and the dollar lower. Now today’s NFP and the wage data might give us hints on not only the future trends of wage inflation and the health of the jobs market but also what traders think about the future Fed policies. By reading further, you agree with our disclaimer at the end of this report and acknowledge that we do not provide investment advice.

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As we don’t know what the employment and wage data will be and we don’t know the market reaction to it either I refrain from the usual market analysis and point to key price levels instead. They will help you to gauge the market sentiment as (if) prices either bounce from them or penetrate them decisively or just temporarily. 

In today’s report, I provide you with trade ideas, analysis and key technical levels on:

  • DJIA

EURUSD 4h chart 08 05

EURUSD moves sideways in a fairly wide price range (1.0096 – 1.0293) with some upward tendency. The market is bullish above 1.0122 and if the support is broken decisively EURUSD could trade down to 1.00670 or so. The nearest key price levels for this market are 1.0156, 1.0193 and 1.0294. 

USDJPY chart 08 05

USDJPY violated the 133.42 support and moved to my alternative target range at 132.50 – 132.90. This is where buyers got interested in the pair and now USDJPY ranges between 132.52 and 133.42. The nearest key price levels for this market are 132.52, 133.42 and 134.54. 

DJ chart 08 05

DJ traded down to my Target 1 level (32670) yesterday before rallying a bit. My T1 level was the approximate day low. The market is in an uptrend but has created a couple of lower highs which could be an indication of weakness. However, a lot depends on today’s data and the market reaction to it. The nearest key levels for this market are 32379, 32639, 32827 and 32912. 

Gold chart 08 05

XAUUSD is still trending higher after hitting my medium-term target and correcting a bit lower. Now the nearest key price levels are at 1755, 1774 and 1795.

Trade Safe!

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

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