Open Account Trading Carries Risk

Fed to stop hiking soon?

  • Claims came in at the lowest level since April 2022
  • Fed’s Williams wants more hikes to push inflation lower
  • Economists: Only two hikes of 25 bp ahead

Claims data showed yesterday that the US job market remains quite tight. The claims came in at 190K (lowest since April 2022). Fed’s Williams is worried about inflation and calls for more rate hikes. Economists, however, expect to see a pause in rate hikes after the Fed has hiked 25 bp twice in the coming two meetings. The Fed Funds rate is expected to settle at 4.75% – 5.00% in March and no rate cuts are expected before 2024.

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DJ getting close to a support area

DJ remains bearish below 33 227. Above the level, the market has space to rally to 33 870. Dow is trading lower (as per yesterday’s price action) but it’s approaching a support area. The proximity of the 32 800 level could bring in some short covering and speculative buying so we need to take it into account when planning our trades. If the 32 800 level doesn’t hold then the 32 472 low probably comes into play. 

UK100 H80120

FTSE 100 trades near the ATH

UK 100 – FTSE remains bullish above 7720. Below the level, the market probably trades down to 7680 (the 2022 high). FTSE is trading near its all-time high (7875). The index has several big mining companies with a heavy weighting in the index. Thus the market has benefitted from the speculation that China’s reopening will boost commodity prices.


Nasdaq bearish below 11 440

NAS has retraced to the proximity of a minor support level (11 217). The market is currently in a correction though and remains bearish below 11 440. If the market rallies strongly above the level then we might see a move to the 11 540 – 11 600 range.

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Gold is bullish above 1896

Gold remains bullish above 1896. Below the level, the market probably moves down to 1866. The bond market rally stalled yesterday which could be hinting that traders are taking profits in T-Bonds and starting to move money into stocks. Let’s see if this is the case. Just follow the price action and it will tell you. This didn’t slow gold down yet but as the market has been trading sideways in the Asian session we need to pay attention to whether there’s still enough demand for gold at these levels.


Cable trades near the December high

GBPUSD remains bullish above 1.2312 but is trading near the December 14th high so you might want to be careful with any long trades you plan around these levels. Another reason for the Cable bulls to have a rethink is the lower high at 1.2397. If the 1.2312 level breaks the market might trade down to the 1.2250 – 1.2260 range. Retail sales disappointed this morning but didn’t move the market significantly.

The Next Main Risk Events

  • CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
  • EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • CAD Core Retail Sales 
  • CAD Retail Sales 
  • USD Existing Home Sales
  • USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks

For more information and details see the TIOmarkets economic calendar.  

Trade Safe!

Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst

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